Business Insider – US Recession Odds Climb to 48% as Building Permits Slide
Moody’s Analytics chief economist
Mark Zandi now places the odds of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months at
48%, the highest level without an actual downturn on record. Zandi cites a troubling combination of factors:
building permits plunging near pandemic-era lows, rising unsold housing inventory, and weakening buyer demand. These are considered leading indicators, and Moody’s machine-learning-based economic model shows permits as the single most critical variable for predicting recessions.
Zandi warns that even if the
Federal Reserve delivers a rate cut at its upcoming meeting, the lag in monetary policy impact means it may not be enough to avoid a contraction. This aligns with his broader warning that the economy is standing at “the edge of a cliff.”
Investor Takeaway: With recession risk nearing 50%, housing activity cooling, and limited policy tools left to deploy, investors face heightened market volatility ahead. Diversifying into resilient asset classes, like
gold and silver, can offer a hedge against market drawdowns and protect purchasing power during economic turbulence.
Source:
Business Insider –
US Recession Odds Climb to 48% as Building Permits Slide; Mark Zandi warns the risk is now “uncomfortably high.” (businessinsider.com) (businessinsider.com)
