The Conference Board’s latest survey reveals a sharp downturn in business sentiment among U.S. CEOs. After a brief uptick in optimism earlier this year, CEO Confidence has dropped dramatically, signaling growing concerns about recession risk and the broader economic outlook.
Key Highlights
Confidence Index Plummets
The Measure of CEO Confidence™ fell to 34, down from 60 in Q1 — the steepest quarterly decline since 1976.
This is the lowest confidence level since late 2022, when recession fears previously peaked¹.
Recession Expectations Spike
83% of CEOs now expect a U.S. recession within 12–18 months, a stark increase from Q1.
Only 2% believe the economy is improving, while over 80% say conditions have worsened¹.
Business Investment and Hiring Plans Decline
The number of CEOs planning to reduce capital spending doubled to 26%, while fewer than 1 in 5 expect to increase investment.
Layoffs are rising, with 28% of CEOs anticipating job cuts, and wage growth plans are slowing.
Top Risks Identified
CEOs ranked geopolitical instability, regulatory unpredictability, and trade tensions as top external threats, followed by cybersecurity.
Strategic Takeaways for Business Leaders
- Prepare for Downturns: The rapid decline in sentiment reflects a cautious shift across industries. Executives should revisit budgets, reduce exposure, and plan for tightened conditions.
- Reassess Hiring and Compensation: Slower wage increases and rising layoff plans may affect workforce morale and retention—consider balancing cuts with productivity strategies.
- Monitor Global and Regulatory Risk: Elevated concerns about geopolitical and policy-related instability call for proactive contingency planning.
Bottom Line
The Q2 2025 CEO Confidence collapse is a warning signal: leaders across industries are bracing for tougher conditions ahead. Whether recession materializes or not, this sharp pivot in sentiment suggests it’s time to refocus on resilience, flexibility, and capital preservation.
Source
The Conference Board – CEO Confidence Q2 2025 Report
