5 LABOR-MARKET INDICATORS THAT SHOW THE ECONOMY IS HURTLING TOWARD RECESSION

FROM: BUSINESSINSIDER.COM

The US labor market shows resilience in headline figures, with 199,000 jobs added in November and a drop in the unemployment rate to 3.7%, despite elevated interest rates. However, Jon Wolfenbarger, founder of BullAndBearProfits.com, identifies five indicators suggesting underlying weaknesses. The three-month moving average of the unemployment rate is trending upward, reaching 0.3 percentage points, approaching the 0.5-point threshold historically signaling recession. Temporary employment growth is negative, mirroring levels at the start of previous recessions, and permanent job losses have surged over 20% year-over-year. The trucking industry's job growth and declining job openings add to concerns. Wolfenbarger predicts a substantial recession, foreseeing a 61.8% drop in the S&P 500, citing high valuations. While his view is an outlier, differing opinions on the labor market persist, with some anticipating a soft landing and others, like economist Anna Wong, predicting continued weakening. Amid an aggressive tightening monetary policy, uncertainty looms over the US economy's fate, with conflicting data signaling potential challenges for stocks ahead.

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To Read More: https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-recession-outlook-indicators-sp500-unemployment-rate-wolfenbarger-2023-12